Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The Grand Renaissance Dam crisis: The available choices

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Wed, 19/06/2013 - 17:10

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr has held intensive talks in Ethiopia's capital Adis Ababa over the ongoing Grand Renaissance Dam crisis, days after the Ethiopian parliament approved the Entebbe Agreement on the redistribution of River Nile water. The development had only added fuel to the fire in a crisis that has seen Cairo recently waive military action while an Ethiopian government spokesperson has said the project is non-negotiable.

In a report, entitled "Egypt's Limited Military Options to Stop an Ethiopian Dam Project," Stratfor Global Intelligence assesses the difficulties Egypt's air forces could encounter in the event of a direct military strike on the dam. It argues that the Egyptin army lacks the sufficient aerial refuelling capabilities that would allow its fighters to fly the long distances to Ethiopia. This suggests Egypt would have to rely on Sudan as a staging point for a blitzkrieg strike. The Grand Renaissance Dam is only 12 kilometres from Sudan's borders.

However, the report explains, an indirect military solution is contingent on Sudan's approval because it would expose Ethiopia's next-door neighbour to potentially dire consequences that could amount to all-out war. This makes a Sudanese agreement for Egypt to launch military sorties from its territory much less likely.

Ruling out military action leaves Egypt with less violent and less expensive options. These could include backing Ethiopian opposition groups or investing in religious or ideological conflicts between radical Islamist groups - most active in Somalia and Eritrea - and Adis Ababa's Orthodox Christian regime. These groups could be co-opted to pressure the Ethiopian government by launching targeted operations into the heart of the country.

Egypt might also consider supporting separatist ethnicities such as the Oromia tribes who for a long time now have attacked perceived marginalisation and been represented by armed groups seeking to claim their rights by force.

As well as the Oromia, Ethiopia's Ogaden region is home to a Somali-origin majority where several radical groups are looking to break free from Ethiopia and join Somalia instead.

The diplomatic route, although it would not bring about an immediate solution, will remain an important "soft" option for Egypt's leadership. Its slow impact and dependance on timing might make it the best possible scenario. Egypt might, for example, resort to the United Nations Security Council or the International Court of Justice. It could also opt for political means such as mediation by parties with influence over Ethiopia - namely the African Union, the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Egypt could also approach countries funding the Ethiopian dam, including China and Italy.

International precedent for this route should be cause for encouragement. The International Court of Justice, in its most recent adjudications on water disputes between Hungary and Slovakia in 1997; and Uruguay and Argentina in 2010, concluded that regional treaties, including those on international rivers, should be irrevocable because they are inherited by consecutive governments.

This "soft" approach is the most subtle but the most difficult at the same time, due to considerations of time and lack of trust between parties involved in the conflict. Despite those challenges, this option remains necessary for handling any future disputes over water issues between the two countries.

In this context, Egypt could engage in the Ethiopian project at the levels of funding, implementation and consultancy, turning it into a principal partner. That would allow Egypt to ensure that the project is executed according to technical specifications that take into account environmental considerations, sustainable development and continued water flow, thereby serving the interests of all parties.

The piece is a summary of an analysis by Al-Masry Studies and Information Centre

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Egypt: Threats Over Nile Waters Backfire As Promise of War Is Not Credible

ANALYSIS

Photo: Marc Veraart/Flickr

A man weaving cotton by hand near the Blue Nile in Ethiopia (file photo).

Egypt's threats towards Ethiopia and its Grand Renaissance dam project on the Blue Nile seem to be backfiring on all sides. On 3rd June, President Morsi, beset by growing internal problems, had a clever idea. His government would drum up an external threat, and call for internal unity. He invited leading Egyptian politicians to a meeting to discuss the issue of Ethiopia's "diversion" of the Blue Nile - the source of most of Egypt's water. Never mind that the supposed "diversion" was simply a temporary rerouting of the river by some 500 meters from its normal channel.

President Morsi called the meeting to review the impact of the dam (if any) on Egypt's water supply. Strangely enough, he failed to inform the politicians that their meeting was being broadcast live on TV, which encouraged them to engage in a favourite pastime - the repetition old myths of their ownership of the Nile waters and willingness to fight for Egypt's right to control them.

He may have also failed to inform his politicians that three days earlier an independent panel of experts (including members from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan) had reported the findings of a yearlong study, that the hydropower dam would not significantly reduce the flow of water reaching Sudan and Egypt.

With Egypt's senior politicians discussing a potential military response, Ethiopia was not amused. President Morsi then appeared to put on a statesmanlike show of conciliation and calm. Later, however, Egypt issued a demand that Ethiopia stop construction of the dam, and warned on Monday June 10th that "all options are open."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn responded, vowing that "nothing and no one will stop the dam's construction" and downplayed the threat of conflict. Ethiopia's Parliament also voted unanimously to ratify the new Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), already signed by six Nile basin states. Congo and South Sudan have also announced plans to join the new pact - the result of decade-long negotiations, which will create a commission to oversee Nile projects and ensure the equitable allocation of Nile waters among the basin states.

Ethiopia had earlier postponed ratification for a year to accommodate Egypt's request for time until an elected government was in place, and to allow the team of experts, including those from Egypt and Sudan, to inspect the dam and satisfy themselves that it would not reduce their water supply.

Meanwhile, efforts to mobilize the Egyptian public behind Morsi have had mixed results, kicking off an uproar in the country's independent media. Critics have argued that carrying the meeting live on TV showed Morsi's mismanagement of a national security issue. Reform campaigner and opposition leader, Nobel Peace Laureate Mohamed El Baradei, called on Morsi to apologize to Ethiopia and Sudan on behalf of the Egyptian people for what was said during the meeting.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr also got in on the act, saying he would go to Addis Ababa to discuss the dam and, according to Reuters, vowing not to give up "a single drop of water from the Nile." Ethiopia, however, had already refused Egypt's request to stop work on the dam as a "non-starter, and dismissed threats from Cairo of 'sabotage' and 'destabilization' noting that such attempts by Egypt under its previous military rulers had failed.

The countries that share the Nile have long disagreed over the use of its waters. This has led to fears, largely promoted by Egypt, that the disputes could boil over into war. Since the late 1970s, when Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel, it was permitted to place senior Egyptian officials in strategic positions in the World Bank and other international agencies. These included those concerned with international water issues such as the UN Environment Programme, and of course, international peace issues.

This enabled Cairo to implement a strategy of discouraging international loans to upstream Nile basin countries for development of water infrastructure without Egyptian permission. The justification was always that such loans would endanger peace as Egypt might be forced to take action in view of its "total dependency" on the Nile waters. If Egypt said it needed all the Nile waters, it was not for the international financial institutions to question. This of course encouraged Egypt's verbal bellicosity, as did the international financial community's habit of accepting, or pretending to accept, this verbal bellicosity at face value.

In the meantime, Getachew Reda, a spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, was quoted by Associated Press in Addis Ababa, pointing out that "If there are still people who still think they can do the kind of things which leaders in the past such as Mubarak were not able to successfully launch, then they are entitled to day-dreaming." In 2010 when the late Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, accused Egypt of aiding rebels against his government, Cairo denied the accusations, which Getachew described as "hard facts."

That Egypt would engage in open warfare is most unlikely. Egypt's long time ally Sudan has expressed its support for Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam which, besides not reducing the amount of water for the downstream countries, would actually benefit them. In effect, the dam's location in the depths of the Blue Nile Gorge, some 50 km from the Sudanese border, cannot be used for irrigation within Ethiopia, with no irrigable land within reach. The Renaissance Dam therefore poses no threat to Egypt's water supply. The threat it poses, is to Egypt's supposed hegemony over the Nile waters

Egypt's foreign policy has long been shaped by its quest for hegemony over the Nile and the Blue Nile in particular. It is based on the premise that Egypt must be strong enough to either dominate Ethiopia or to create conditions that prevent Ethiopia from building dams on the Blue Nile. With that aim, Egypt occupied the port of Massawa for some 20 years during 1865 and 1885, having leased it from the Ottoman Sultanate. In 1875 and 1876 Egypt's ruler launched a series of military expeditions against Ethiopia, led by Swiss and American mercenary officers resulting in humiliating defeats for Egypt at the battle of Gundet. Some four months later, during March 1876, some 12,000 Egyptian soldiers were annihilated by Ras Alula's Ethiopian forces at the Battle of Gura.

Egypt may need to be reminded that regimes may change, with military, economic and other capacities too, but geography remains the same. Egypt will always be the downstream country. It may also need to be reminded of the limitations of its economic and military capacity and particularly its ability to project that military capacity over long distances and provide it with the necessary economic and logistical support. So far, its capacity appears to be greater using the tactic of destabilization with non-state actors

In recognition of its somewhat vulnerable strategic position, Egypt has used its political, economic and military strength to influence developments within other riparian states. This has included attempts to exert pressure on upper riparian states proposing to develop their Nile water resources, through threats of military action, and providing support to rebel groups.

While a war over the Nile waters was always unlikely, the recent political and economic turmoil in Egypt and the Arab region has made it still less feasible. There is a need for new faces to come forward, for a new dialogue, and to seek the win-win solutions needed by all the Nile basin peoples.

What is certain is that to support their rapidly growing and youthful populations, all of the basin states need to focus on urbanization, industrialization and job creation. This will require rapid development of their sustainable energy resources and acceptance of the reality that water is an economic resource that they cannot afford to waste. The Renaissance Dam and the 6000 megawatts of power that it will produce will make an important contribution to all the Nile basin states, and ultimately, to regional economic integration, peace and security.

Seifulaziz Milas is author of Sharing the Nile: Egypt, Ethiopia and the Geo-Politics of Water forthcoming from Pluto Books, London, July 2013.

Ethiopian refugees face dam backlash in Egypt

A group of Oromo men are told that the UN cannot provide shelter or food for the hundreds of refugees who have camped out front of the UNHCR building in Cairo for the last week.

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Persecuted ethnic Oromo demand UN protection amid xenophobic attacks and government hostility over the Blue Nile dam.

June 19, 2013, Cairo, Egypt(Aljazeera) - For months, Gutama Gallatobati, a proud farmer and mechanic of Oromo descent languished in an Ethiopian prison over accusations he burned an Ethiopian flag. While inside, guards physically abused him.

Sada Ahmed, a mother of five children and wife of a wealthy husband lived a good life in Ethiopia until she was accused of financially supporting the rebel group Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Her husband disappeared in Sudan and she was forced to flee to Egypt.

The Oromo make up 40 percent of the Ethiopian population. However, the minority Tigray government has persecuted the Oromo people, jailing more than 20,000 suspected OLF members. As a result, many have been forced to flee, leaving behind family, friends and jobs.

Ahead of World Refugee Day on Thursday, the Oromo who have fled to Egypt are again endangered.

Over the last few weeks, there has been an emergence of xenophobic attacks against Ethiopians on the streets of Cairo, motivated by Ethiopia’s goal to build the “Grand Renaissance Dam”.

The Ethiopian government is planning to dam the Blue Nile for hydroelectric power, a move Egypt worries will affect its water supply.

In response to the project, Egypt’s government has reached a new level of bellicose rhetoric. In a televised meeting of key government officials recently, former presidential candidate Ayman Nour suggested Egypt launch air strikes to stop construction of the dam. Others proposed destabilising the Ethiopian government by funding rebel groups.

The Oromo in Egypt are now caught in the middle here and say their facing increased hostility from Egyptians.

In response, hundreds of Oromo refugees have staged a sit-in outside the Cairo office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) demanding safety. They’ve refused to leave, sleeping on the grass outside the building, near leaking sewage from a surrounding apartment complex.

Jeylan Kassim, head of the Oromo Sons/ Daughters Refugee Association, has played a leading role in organising the protests. “We will not leave until the UNHCR will protect us,” he told Al Jazeera.

A heavy silence blankets the Oromo as they sit on scraps of cardboard listening to members of the community discuss in frustration fruitless meetings with UNHCR representatives.

The UN says it cannot provide temporary shelter or food outside the UNHCR building because they do not have authority over the land, nor the resources to supply those camping out for the nearly two weeks.

The UN has offered a phone hotline for refugees to call with their problems, as well as legal assistance.

But the Oromo say this is not enough. “Our case cannot be resolved with lawyers and judges and courts … We don’t want legal protection, we want physical protection,” says Mohamed Zein, a journalist from Ethiopia.

He fled to Egypt after he was falsely accused of providing secret government information to NGO Human Rights Watch and the Eritrean government.

The UNHCR acknowledges the situation is a difficult one but says its options are limited. “The outcome is not in your hands. As the United Nations, you don’t get involved in [internal] politics,” says UN press officer Ahmed Aboughazala.

The Oromo in Egypt are united not only by their heritage, but also by a collective sense of uncertainty.

When 33-year-old Gutama Gallatobati arrived in Cairo a month ago, he thought his biggest troubles had been left behind. A week ago, however, his landlord evicted him from his apartment and his belongings were taken. When asked what reason he’d been given, he sighed: “The Nile.”

“They said if you take our water, we will take your blood,” recounted Abdi Harboury, a lanky youth shy to make eye contact.

According to the Oromo community, Abdi was the first person to have been attacked over the dam issue. He was beaten by three Egyptian youth, they say.

Hussein Ahmed, an asylum seeker who has been in Cairo almost two years, admitted he lies when asked about his origins. “I was at the barber and he asked me, ‘Where are you from?’ I said Nigeria. I am scared to say I am from Ethiopia.”

Even outside the UNHCR office, the refugees say it is not safe. Ahmed said he was beaten recently, and a woman was groped on her way to find a toilet. They claim the police did nothing to stop the attacks.

Some police officers have told locals passing by that the refugees are not suffering, and are being paid by the American government to protest, the Oromo say. “They protest in the day and then at night they’re paid and many of them leave,” said a young officer, who declined to give his name because he was not authorised to talk to the press.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr, meanwhile, arrived last Sunday in Addis Ababa to meet with his Ethiopian counterpart in an attempt to find a political and economic solution over the dam issue.

Ethiopia and Egypt agreed to hold further talks on the impact of a huge Ethiopian dam project to quell tensions between the two countries over water-sharing.

Until it gets resolved, however, the Oromo who fled persecution in Ethiopia say they will continue to face threats to their safety in Egypt.

–Aljazeera

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