Nile crises, where do we Oromos stand

By Adugna Dinka

According to some online news the construction of Ethiopian renaissance dam or The Abay dam is 21 per cent complete and it was just last week that Ethiopia started to divert the course of water about 500 meter to start the main work. When it get finished, the dam is expected to generate about 6000 megawatt of electricity which of course will be used to cover the electricity demand of the Ethiopian empire as well as electricity export to the neighboring countries to earn foreign currency for Weyane government. 

Egypt, who has the lion’s share of the Nile water based on the colonial era agreement of 1959, and who has a veto power on upstream water development projects doesn’t want its quota of water to be reduced due to the construction of this dam. It was just not long ago that the upstream countries of the Nile River signed a new agreement that was rejected by Egypt.  But due to unknown reason, the Egyptian kept silent until the day Ethiopia started diverting the water course. Since then, the issue is boiling between the two countries. The Egyptian politicians were even caught on air/TV broadcast/ threatening to go to war against Ethiopia or support Ethiopian rebels.  It appears that the Sudanese government is in support of the project may be due to the benefit it might get from the electricity supply after the completion of the dam.

From the Ethiopian side, the timing of the construction of the Abay dam is very interesting. Because it is a time that Egypt is becoming weaker and weaker due to the political situation in Egypt, the long lasted revolution as well as the change of the ruling party. There is still instability in the Egyptian politics. Other than this, Ethiopia claims that the dam doesn’t affect the downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt) at all. To the contrary, they say the dam will benefit them. They even invited others to join the project.

On the other hand, it appears that the project (the construction of the dam) has much opposition at home and from diaspora communities of Ethiopia from across the world. The TPLF, which has absolutely dominant power in the government of Ethiopia has tried many times to raise fund by selling bonds to diaspora communities and failed. They even faced with stiff opposition and protests. This is due to the fact that the human right record of the regime is very bad. The TPLF led government is unfriendly to the citizens, opposition parties and journalists.  The government creates conflicts between ethnics for a political benefit by claiming the conflict is caused by opposition parties or by rebel organizations. Moreover, the rebel organizations like Oromo liberation front (OLF) and Ogaden national liberation front (ONLF) are categorized as terrorist organizations by the TPLF dominated parliament of the country.

Over all, the success of the dam is debated both at home and internationally.  Nationally, the project is not fully supported by all nations and nationalities. The funding issue is another problem. Nobody is sure whether it is possible to raise such a fund locally.

Internationally, the dam affects countries those depend totally on the water supply of the river. It is said that 85% of the Nile water comes from Blue Nile. If the water supply of Egypt and Sudan is affected there is going to be a regional war.

In any case, there are countries or people who are going to be affected. Some will be affected more than others. Oromo people are those who are going to be affected much. The Oromo refugees in Egypt who left their homeland due to the brutality of the TPLF led government are already paying the price.

But, the bigger picture of the dam for Oromo people is more than this. If the Dam is to be constructed, as it is funded locally most of Oromo natural resources are going to be sold on cheap prices. The Weyane government is already selling everything including land to any investor whether it is national or foreigner customer. Most Oromos and other nations and nationalities from the southern part of the country are going to lose their resources and even they can be displaced from their land and it is already happening.

The worst case scenario of the dam is if Egypt goes to war against Ethiopian and destroy the dam to save its water quota. Under this case, one has to ask the question what is the cost of the war and who is going to fight? We have already seen the cost of the war with Eritrea which is a very small country. The life of dignified people and the resource expended on that nonsense war was too much. During that war, the majority of those who fought the wrong war and died were the sons and daughters of the poor Oromos.

If war happens with Egypt today or tomorrow, the poor Oromos and others are going to fight for the TPLF led government of Ethiopia just to benefit others. The leadership of the military is all in the hand of the Tigreans as all the generals and commanders are from them. The leadership of the country is in their hand. Then who will talk for the Oromos at this point. Are we going to fight a wrong war again?

Over here, we need Oromo leadership that takes us to the right position. Those Oromo leaders abroad or at home must come together and say a word about the position of Oromos in relation with the controversial dam as we are the one who are going to pay the price. As Oromos are the majority in that empire lets show our position and let it impact the decision that is made in that country.

The divided Oromo leadership in diaspora must come together at this point by putting aside their difference and come up with a unified leadership position that we all follow confidently. And it must be on time before it is too late.

Adugna Dinka (re_appear1@yahoo.co.uk)