By Leggesse Alemu
Ethiopian Muslim movement is scary threats for Ethiopian Government at least for three main reasons.
1. It is supported by almost all sections of societies and communities in that Country. This is so because the Muslim questions are known as legitimate and its movement is as peaceful. I have no doubt that many people in Ethiopian Government themselves know the legality and legitimacy of these questions but could not say or do anything because of the repressive nature of the EPRDF’s party system ( in this regard , in addition to my best guess, at least I have positive confirmation from some people who were working on Muslim issues from inside Government system until recently. Since many of these categories of officials themselves are under constant surveillance, they cannot say nor do anything without risking severe sanctions from the Ethiopian Government.)
2. This movement is very organized around clear principles, operational policies and procedures that have been executed by highly dedicated and disciplined leaders and followers. This is something that could not have been achieved by the pre-existing political and civic organizations in that country.
3. The methods and strategies adopted by this movement are simply beyond the comprehension of control- control model of Ethiopian security machineries. This control-freak security system and its officials have been in serious problems at least for two main reasons. First, they could not identify (tracing and tracking), assess, monitor and control the very sources of this movement (the threat as they name it). Second, they fear these lethal method and strategies of nonviolence could be adopted by other political and civic Organizations and simply put the current regime in serious and irreversible problems.
Thus, in its larger scale it is nightmarish for Ethiopian security system in particular and for EPRDF Government in general. In this regard Ethiopian Muslim movement is successful and exemplary. Several preliminary analysises suggest that the current Muslim movement in Ethiopia and its organizing ideas and strategies are easy to be adopted and integrated into any social movements in more ways than the concept of framing allows for. It also expands our understanding of how organizations and movements can arise in highly repressive Ethiopian political environments and Ethiopian Government knows this pretty well.
Having these problems in place, Ethiopian Government has been in real panics and taking erratic and deadly measures against identified and targeted individuals and groups that are allegedly associated with this movement. There are also many sources that indicate Ethiopian has been studying the movement for the last two years and now it seems that study phase is finalized. It is also very clear that Ethiopian Government starts implementing and executing the studies (the crackdown strategies and tactics) that it has been working hard on since 2011. It sounds the movement is on its critical turning points this time and at this stage.
The question that will be answered in due time should be : Is Ethiopian Government going to be successfully crackdown this movement without fully answering the legitimate questions that have been presented to it legally? What are the measuring units of success for Ethiopian Government?What are the measuring units for Ethiopian Government? If Ethiopian Government is going to be successful again, whatever the meaning of this success would be, what will be the consequences there of? What will be the way forward for any movement that would like to see it questions are adequately addressed by the Regime in Power?
Unless these legitimate questions and demands of Muslim Movement are handled very responsibly and with due diligence, the future of the Horn of Africa may not be as hopeful and bright as it should be. As we all know, Horn of Africa is one of the most “crisis regions” on the planet, This specific region has been ravaged by grinding poverty, the questions of nations and nationalities, high frequencies of intensive resource conflicts, lack of good governance and gross human rights violations, unresolved border claims and wars, proxy wars, old-cyclical and historical animosity among different interest groups and many other perfect recipe for explosive regional conflicts. Adding another political-religious conflicts , that could be addresses reasonably and sufficiently, to these potentially explosive regional matters is truly irresponsible and malicious recklessness on the part of Ethiopian Government. I do not imagine how Ethiopian Government wants to play such bloody card and could get away with it without sustaining serious backlash.
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